Page 113 - 《中国药房》2022年4期

预算影响分析中药品市场份额的计算方法探讨 Δ

＊
#
张 猛 ，陈 磊，席晓宇（中国药科大学国家药物政策与医药产业经济研究中心，南京 211198）
中图分类号 R956 文献标志码 A 文章编号 1001-0408（2022）04-0487-05
DOI 10.6039/j.issn.1001-0408.2022.04.17

摘 要 目的 探讨预算影响分析（BIA）中药品市场份额的计算方法，以期为BIA研究提供新思路。方法 针对部分药品具有多种
适应证或药品说明书适应证不够明确且与报销目录适应证表述不一致的情况，从“人次数”这一概念出发，引入样本医院、每人次
平均治疗时间等参数来进行市场份额计算；同时以肝硬化治疗药物为例演示计算过程。结果与结论 以肝硬化治疗药物为例计算
市场份额的结果显示，两种算法结果具有较大差异，基于“人数”计算的市场份额大多高于基于“人次数”计算的市场份额。相较于
传统基于“人数”的算法，基于“人次数”的市场份额算法可更准确地计算市场份额，可解决传统算法未充分考虑大部分药品具有多
种适应证或药品说明书适应证不够明确且与报销目录表述不一致而导致的市场份额计算不准确的问题；同时，本算法还可基于样
本医院的每人次平均治疗时间等参数，尝试解决患者总人次数无法通过流行病学数据获得的问题。当目标药品的适应证不够明
确或存在多种适应证，或当研究者收集临床、流行病学和医疗保险资料估算目标人群数量时因必要数据缺失而导致市场容量预测
结果不符合理论逻辑或实际情况时，或当目标病种具有反复发作、病程短的特点等情况时，可考虑选用本算法。
关键词 预算影响分析；市场份额；计算方法；人次数

Discussion on calculation methods of drug market share in budget impact analysis
ZHANG Meng，CHEN Lei，XI Xiaoyu（Research Center of Drug Policy & Ecosystem， China Medical

University，Nanjing 211198，China）

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To investigate the calculation method of drug market share in budget impact analysis（BIA）in order
to provide new ideas for BIA research. METHODS In view of the situation that some drugs had multiple indications or the
indications in the drug instructions were not clear enough and inconsistent with the indications in the reimbursement catalogue，
starting from the concept of“times per person”，the parameters such as sample hospital and average treatment time per person for
each time were introduced to develop a new market share calculation method. At the same time，the calculation process was
demonstrated by taking the treatment drugs for liver cirrhosis as an example. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS Taking treatment
drugs of liver cirrhosis as an example，the calculation results of market share showed that the results of the two calculation methods
were quite different. The market share calculated on the basis of“the number of people”was mostly higher than that calculated on
the basis of“times per person”. Compared with the traditional calculation method based on“the number of people”，the calculation
method of market share based on“times per person”could calculate the market share more accurately，which could solve the
problem that the traditional method didn’t fully consider that most drugs had multiple indications，the indications of drug
instructions were not clear enough and inconsistent with the reimbursement catalogue，resulting in inaccurate calculation of market
share；at the same time，this method could also be used to try to solve the problem that the total number of patients could not be
obtained from epidemiological data based on the average treatment time per person of each time in the sample hospital. This method
can be considered when the indications of the target drug are not clear enough or there are multiple indications，or when the
researchers collect clinical，epidemiological and medical insurance data to estimate the number of target population，the prediction
results of market capacity do not conform to the theoretical logic or actual situation due to the lack of necessary data，or when the
target disease has the characteristics of repeated attacks and short course of disease.
KEYWORDS budget impact analysis；market share；calculation method；time per person

Δ 基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（No.72004230） 预算影响分析（budget impact analysis，BIA）是对新
＊硕士研究生。研究方向：药物经济学与医药卫生政策。E-mail：
的医疗干预措施进入某个系统（如医保目录）后对该系
zhangmeng2210@163.com
统支出影响的分析评估 [1－2] 。以BIA在药品报销目录准
# 通信作者：研究员，博士生导师，博士。研究方向：药物经济学
与医药卫生政策。E-mail：cpuxixiaoyu@163.com 入中的应用为例，其相关计算过程包括市场容量计算、

中国药房 2022年第33卷第4期 China Pharmacy 2022 Vol. 33 No. 4 ·487 ·