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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE： To investigate the intraction between China’s foreign economic trade and pharmaceutical
manufacturing industry， in order to provide the reference for China’s foreign economic trade growth and pharmaceutical
manufacturing industry development in the future. METHODS：By collecting the data of China’s foreign economic trade and
pharmaceutical manufacturing industry during 1998-2018 issued by National Bureau of Statistics，China Statistics Yearbook on High
Technology Industry and China Statistics Yearbook on Scientific Technology，referring to relevant literature method，index system
was established that includes the foreign economic trade system and the pharmaceutical manufacturing system. CRITIC method was
adopted to assign the weight of data index and calculate comprehensive evaluation data. VAR model was used to analyze the
interaction between China’s foreign economic trade and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and put forward the suggestions.
RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS：From the results of cointegration test，foreign economic trade development played a strong role in
promoting and driving pharmaceutical manufacturing industry development（correlation coefficient was 0.432 198）；from the results
of Granger causality test，the development of foreign economic trade was the Granger cause for pharmaceutical manufacturing
industry development（confidence probability was lower than 0.001），but the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry development
was not the Granger’s reason for foreign economic trade（confidence probability was 0.358）. By the results of impulse response
and variance decomposition，it reflected an interrelationship between the two，but the contribution of foreign economic trade to the
development of pharmaceutical manufacturing is relatively small. It is suggested that China’s pharmaceutical manufacturing
enterprises should grasp the market demand and trade opportunities in time，and further expand the scale of business by providing
high quality pharmaceutices products；make full use of new trade mode and speed up the circulation of pharmaceutical products in
economic and trade activities so as to further expand the domestic and foreign markets of pharmaceutical products；the state should
formulate and improve the preferential and supporting policies for pharmaceutical manufacturing industry as soon as possible to
reduce the burden for pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises. In addition，from the national level and the enterprise level，we
should appropriately increase the investment in scientific research of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and increase industry
cultiration，so as to promote the rapid development of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and realize a virtuous circle of mutual
promotion of foreign economic trade and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.
KEYWORDS Foreign economic trade； Pharmaceutical manufacturing industry； Interaction； Empirical study； Vector
autoregressive model

2001年12月，我国正式加入世界贸易组织（WTO）， 易与医药制造业的相关统计数据。
[1]
此举大大促进了我国对外经济贸易的发展 。2013年9 1.2 指标选取与变量设定
月，我国相继提出“新丝绸之路经济带”“21 世纪海上丝 本研究结合部分学者对于医药制造业的发展状况
绸之路”（简称“一带一路”）的合作倡议，以推动我国与 和对外经济贸易的研究情况进行数据指标选取和指标
[2]
[5]
沿线各国的经济贸易往来 。2019 年，国务院同意增设 体系的构建。在叶梦寒等 的研究基础上，选取医药制
山东、江苏、河北等6个省份设立自由贸易试验区，至此， 造业企业数量、医药制造业总产值、医药制造业主营业
我国自由贸易试验区数量已达到18个；与此同时，跨境 务收入、医药制造业利润、医药制造业科研活动人员数
电商、保税物流等一系列开放政策的颁布与实施，进一 量、医药制造业科技活动经费内部支出、医药制造业拥
[3]
步推动了我国对外进出口贸易的增长 。2019 年，我国 有发明专利数量、医药制造业新产品产值作为数据指标
[6]
医药保健产品进出口总额为 1 456.91 亿美元，医药品作 来反映医药制造业发展状况；参照江雯雯等 的研究并
为高附加值货品在我国进出口贸易交易总额中约占 在其研究基础上，采用进出口总额、医药品出口额、医药
3％，医药制造业也伴随着对外经济贸易的发展而快速 品进口额、医药制造业出口交货值、医药制造业新产品
进步 。为探讨我国对外经济贸易活动对医药制造业发 出口销售收入等数据反映我国对外经济贸易发展情
[4]
展产生的影响，本研究采用计量经济学中的向量自回归 况。将上述指标分为2个一级指标，即对外经济贸易系
（Vector autoregression，VAR）模型，以对外经济贸易与医 统和医药制造业系统，共计 6 个二级指标、13 个三级指
药制造业发展规模为对象，深入探讨二者之间存在的互 标，详见表1。
动及影响关系，旨在为对外经济贸易活动及我国医药制 1.3 数据处理与模型建立
造业发展提供参考。 1.3.1 数据标准化处理方法
1 资料与方法 由于不同量纲的数据之间存在差异性，本文采取极
1.1 资料来源 差标准化法对所选取的数据进行标准化处理，从而消除
[7]
本研究的数据来自于国家统计局、《中国高技术产 由数据量纲不同所导致的数据差异问题 。对于极大值
业统计年鉴》（1999－2019）和《中国科技统计年鉴》 型数据指标采用公式 Xij＝[xij－min（xij ）]/[max（xij ）－min
（1999－2019）等公布的 1998－2018 年我国对外经济贸 （xij ）]（公式①）对其进行标准化处理，对于极小值型数据

中国药房 2020年第31卷第14期 China Pharmacy 2020 Vol. 31 No. 14 ·1671 ·