Page 13 - 《中国药房》2021年第6期

·药事管理·

基于VAR模型的广东省医药制造业出口贸易关系实证研究 Δ

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张宇杰 ，孙圣兰（广东药科大学医药商学院，广州 510006）
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中图分类号 F426；R95 文献标志码 A 文章编号 1001-0408（2021）06-0647-06
DOI 10.6039/j.issn.1001-0408.2021.06.02

摘 要 目的：为促进广东省医药制造业出口交货值增加、提高医药制造业出口占比和国际化水平提供参考。方法：选取1998－
2019年广东省医药制造业数据，建立向量自回归（VAR）模型，通过协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等实
证研究探讨广东省医药制造业出口贸易活动（出口交货值）、研发投入（研发经费内部支出）、技术创新（技术改造费用）间的关系。
结果与结论：通过协整关系检验与格兰杰因果检验可知，广东省医药制造业出口贸易活动与研发投入、技术创新存在稳定的均衡
关系；技术创新是出口交货值的格兰杰原因，其能够正向促进出口贸易活动的增加，滞后期为2年；出口交货值是研发投入的格兰
杰原因，其能够促进研发投入的增加，且随着时间的推移影响越来越大；研发投入是技术创新的格兰杰原因，能够促进技术创新的
增加。通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解可知，广东省医药制造业出口贸易活动、研发投入和技术创新存在相互影响的动态均衡关系。
出口交货值的变动主要受自身影响较大，技术创新为辅助促进作用（贡献率约为7％）。建议企业应重视技术改造与研发投入，打造高
技术医药制造产业，充分发挥岭南中医药产品的特色，增强优势出口医药产品的技术竞争力，优化医药产业布局，提升国际竞争力。
关键词 医药制造业；出口贸易活动；研发投入；技术创新；向量自回归模型

Empirical Research on Export Trade Relations of Guangdong Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry
Based on VAR Model
ZHANG Yujie，SUN Shenglan（School of Medical Business，Guangdong Pharmaceutical University，Guangzhou
510006，China）

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE：To provide reference for increasing the export trade of Guangdong’s pharmaceutical manufacturing
industry，and improving the proportion of pharmaceutical manufacturing export and internationalization level. METHODS：The data
of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Guangdong province were collected from 1998 to 2019，and vector autoregressive
（VAR）model was established. The relationship of export trade activities（export delivery value），R&D investment（R&D internal
expenditure） and technological innovation （technological transformation cost） of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in
Guangdong province were explored empirically through cointegration relationship test，Granger causality test，impulse response
function and variance decomposition. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS：Through the cointegration relationship test and Granger
causality test，it could be seen that there was a stable equilibrium relationship among the export trade activities of Guangdong
pharmaceutical manufacturing industry，R&D investment and technological innovation. Technological innovation was the Granger
cause of export delivery value and could positively promotes the increase in export trade activities，with a lag period of 2 years.
The export delivery value was the Granger reason for R&D investment，which could promote the increase of R&D investment，and
the influence will become greater and greater over time. R&D investment is the Granger cause of technological innovation，which
can promotes the increase of technological innovation. Through impulse response function and variance decomposition，it could be
known that the export trade activities，R&D investment and technological innovation of Guangdong’s pharmaceutical manufacturing
industry had a dynamic interaction relationship. The change in export delivery value is mainly affected by itself，and technological
innovation is an auxiliary promotion effect （contribution rate of 7％）. It is suggested that enterprises should pay attention to
technological transformation and R&D investment，build high-tech pharmaceutical manufacturing industry，give full play to the
characteristics of Lingnan traditional Chinese medicine products， enhance the technological competitiveness of export
pharmaceutical products，optimize the layout of pharmaceu-
Δ 基金项目：全国教育科学规划 2019 年度教育部重点课题（No.
DFA190319）；2019年度广东省医学科研基金立项项目（No.A2019325） tical industry，and enhance international competitiveness.
＊硕士研究生。研究方向：医药卫生、医药卫生企业管理。 KEYWORDS Pharmaceutical manufacturing industry；
E-mail：1291002046@qq.com Export trade activities； R&D investment； Technological
# 通信作者：教授，硕士生导师，博士。研究方向：企业管理、企业 innovation ；Vector autoregressive model
创新、产业经济。E-mail：sunsl2005@163.com

中国药房 2021年第32卷第6期 China Pharmacy 2021 Vol. 32 No. 6 ·647 ·