Page 7 - 202009

·药事管理·

博弈论视角下药品带量采购降价的影响因素分析 Δ

＊
#
何 锐 ，葛 靖，何梦娇，路 云（中国药科大学国际医药商学院，南京 211198）
中图分类号 R951 文献标志码 A 文章编号 1001-0408（2020）09-1025-05
DOI 10.6039/j.issn.1001-0408.2020.09.01
摘 要 目的：为完善我国药品集中采购制度提供参考。方法：基于博弈论，假设所有参与投标的药品生产企业均是理性的，其目
标均为自身利益的最大化，参与投标的药品生产企业对其他参与投标的药品生产企业的报价在开标前不知情，参与投标的药品生
产企业之间无合谋行为，各企业报价重复为小概率事件，即基本不可能发生。在以上假设条件下针对药品带量采购招标过程，构
建不完全信息的静态博弈模型，分析药品带量采购降价的影响因素，并提出相关建议。结果与结论：成功构建了博弈模型，该模型
涵盖了具有参与药品集中采购资格的企业数量和最多中标企业数量以及其申报价格、成本、报价策略和企业中标后可获得的平均
约定采购量、中标概率、中标后的期望收益等内容。在此模型下，落标企业数量越多、申报价格上下限越低（但下限不能低于成本
价）、合同约定采购量越大，均有利于获得更低的中标价格。基于此，笔者建议在完善我国药品集中招标采购制度时，政府应积极
构建N＞n（申报资格的企业数量大于最多可中选的企业数量）的竞争格局，设置合理的价格上下限，并明确约定采购量。
关键词 药品；带量采购；价格；博弈论；影响因素

Analysis of Influential Factors for Price Reduction of Drug Quantity Purchasing in Perspective of Gaming
Theory
HE Rui，GE Jing，HE Mengjiao，LU Yun（School of International Pharmaceutical Business，China Pharmaceutical
University，Nanjing 211198，China）

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE： To provide reference for the improvement of centralized drug procurement system in China.
METHODS：Based on gaming theory， it was assumed that all drug manufacturers participating in the bidding were rational，and
their goals were to maximize their own interests. Drug manufacturers participating in the bidding did not know the quotations of
other drug manufacturers participating in the bidding before the bid opening. There was no collusion among drug manufacturers
participating in the bidding，and the quotations of each manufacturer were repeated as small probability events，which meant it was
basically impossible to occur. Under the above assumptions，a static game model with incomplete information was constructed for
the bidding process to analyze the influential factors of price reduction of drug quantity purchasing，then related suggestions were
put forward. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS：The gaming model was established successfully. The model covered the number of
enterprises with the qualification to participate in the centralized procurement of drugs，the number of the most successful
enterprises and their declared price，cost，quotation strategy，the average agreed purchase volume after bidding，the probability of
winning the bidding，the expected income after winning the bidding，etc. The larger number of unsuccessful manufacturers，the
lower upper and lower limits（but the lower limits could not lower than cost price）of drug price，and the greater agreed purchase
quantity were all beneficial to acquire a lower selected price under this model. Based on this，the author suggests that the
government should actively construct the competitive pattern of N＞n（the number of enterprises applying for qualification is greater
than the number of enterprises that can be selected at most），set a reasonable price upper and lower limit and specify the purchase
quantity when improving the centralized bidding system of drugs in China.
KEYWORDS Drug；Quantity purchasing；Price；Gaming theory；Influential factors

[2]
药品带量采购是世界卫生组织普遍推荐的药品采 数量，企业根据需求量报价 。2018 年底，我国北京、天
购方式，指通过以“量”换“价”的方式，达到合理降低药 津、上海、重庆、沈阳、大连、厦门、广州、深圳、成都、西安
品价格的目的 ，带量采购要求政府在招标时明确采购 等 11 个城市（以下简称“4+7 城市”）开始实行药品带量
[1]
[3]
Δ 基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（No.71673298）；江苏省 采购 。与“4+7 城市”2017 年同种药品最低采购价相
教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目（No.2017SJB0054） 比，此次药品带量采购中标的25个药品品种的中选价平
＊硕士研究生。研究方向：医药政策。电话：025-86185038。E-
均降幅达 52％，部分中标药品的降价幅度达 90％以上，
mail：sosoruii@126.com
降价效果显著 。“4+7城市”人口数量约占全国人口总数
[4]
# 通信作者：副教授，博士生导师，博士。研究方向：医药政策。
[2]
电话：025-86185038。E-mail：luyuncpu@163.com 的 12％ ，但上述 25 个药品品种在“4+7 城市”的价格显
中国药房 2020年第31卷第9期 China Pharmacy 2020 Vol. 31 No. 9 ·1025 ·